Market News
Soybeans, corn, wheat extend speculative sell-off
Soybeans were lower on speculative and technical selling, with November continuing to fall to multi-year lows. The USDA’s national crop rating dipped but remains well above a year ago at 67% good to excellent, compared to 52% in late July 2023. Near-term forecasts continue to favor eastern growing areas over central and western parts of the region. At least for now, it looks like any issues in those western areas will be balanced out by the better conditions in the east, but August is the critical month for soybean development and there’s a long way to go until harvest. If there’s a bright side to the sell-off, it’s the increasing competitiveness in U.S. beans up for sale this fall and early winter. Brazil continues to largely dominate the global soybean market, but their supplies will run short soon and there’s already been at least some nominal interest in new crop U.S. beans from China and/or unknown destinations recently. Soybean meal was down, following beans, and bean oil was mostly lower on spread trade and the general bearishness in the soy complex.
Corn was lower on speculative and technical selling, with most months closing just above the day’s lows. The U.S. corn rating was up on the week, back to 68% good to excellent, and is holding above the 55% good to excellent this time last year. Medium-term forecasts have a move to a generally less stressful pattern across the region late next week, but at this stage of development, that’s a bigger deal for beans than corn. The critical question for corn continues to be acreage, especially harvested area, with the USDA’s next guess out August 12th. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are out Wednesday. Food, fuel, feed, and export demand continue to be solid supportive background factors.
The wheat complex was lower on speculative and technical selling. The spring wheat crop rating was below a week ago, at 74% good to excellent but still much better than average. That said – the high temperatures impacting spring wheat in the U.S. are expected to last at least another week, so any potential ramifications from just this round of weather would extend into mid-August. Parts of that region are expected to see some limited near-term rain chances. That’s also true for portions of the Canadian Prairies, which are also being hit by the heat. The winter wheat harvest made a solid advance with many states wrapped up or close to it. The furthest behind are mostly in the far northwestern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Globally, the trade continues to monitor the quality issues in France and Germany and the cold, dry conditions in Argentina, in addition to the lingering effects dry weather in parts of Ukraine and Russia and excessive rain impacting quality and delaying harvest in other parts of Russia.
